Wy Point Creep Analysis

[Gorilla]

As I get ready to spend my non-res Wyoming elk points, I wanted to understand each area's point creep rate over time so I know if I have a realistic shot of drawing (based on history). If a unit's point creep rate is growing at pace greater than or equal to my accrual of 1 point per year, I likely wont apply for that unit.

The random draw odds are basically zero (1-2%) across the board, so there would be no need analyze the random draw odds.

I wrote a script to import all the non-res pref point Elk draw odds since 2010 in to a database and built a simple dashboard to visualize the data.

Interesting bit of information... for a non-resident hunter in 2023 to draw a limited quota bull elk tag, it required on average across the state of Wyoming nearly 9 pref points to draw the tag in the special price draw and 10 pref points in the regular price draw. So that means the extra money in the special draw on average buys one extra pref point, which I know is not ground breaking info.

The average point creep rate for limited quote elk tags is .57 per year. In other words if you are 2 points away from drawing a tag, on average it will take 3-4 years to make up the ground and draw that tag.

Next step is to see if I can understand the point creep driver(s) by area; hunters who have been on the sideline and have decided to now jump in or if it is higher/max point holders who have switched from the few max impossible draw odds to a guaranteed tag or a reduction in available tags. Or maybe it is just the fact that more new non-res hunters are entering the system each year and they are just slowing working up through the system over time.

It will be interesting to see how the general area change and the special tag price change effect the odds of drawing an elk tag over the next 2-3 years.

FYI...the special price is not always better. In 2021 for area 55-1, the regular draw odds were 5 points better than the special

 

[buckhunter64]

Have you seen a list of the current NR point holders for elk in WY? there are currently 138,430 people with 1-5 points and 43,385 people with 6-18 points according to the chart I am looking at. If I wasnt already in the WY points game, I dont think I would start now

 

[Gorilla]

Agreed. The average point creep rate for limited quota elk tags in the last 3 years is .73 pref points. So if you are starting this year at zero and you want to draw a tag that takes 10 points this year, plan on drawing that tag in 25+ years.

 

[tallelkchaser]

Thanks for sharing

 

[Gorilla]

If only we could "enhance" the system to make it a closed loop system and not allow in new entrants, then we could get a tag every year. In other words, outfitter and landowner transferable tags!

 

[elkantlers]

Point creep is near impossible to judge, other than it will continue getting worse as each point group hits the max pool for a certain hunt. There are many factors that can affect certain areas point creep: tag reductions/increases, someone starts an internet thread about a certain area, Rumors etc.
There's a person on this website that has posted pictures of a certain area and it most certainly made point creep worse than it already was.

My son and I have Max elk and deer points for Wyoming. We've been on the sidelines for the last 8 years waiting for him to get done with Dental school. This year we will apply, and it will probably affect point creep for the unit we choose.

 

[elkantlers]

If only we could "enhance" the system to make it a closed loop system and not allow in new entrants, then we could get a tag every year. In other words, outfitter and landowner transferable tags!

Ya, EFF the youth.

 

[Buxndiverdux]

As I get ready to spend my non-res Wyoming elk points, I wanted to understand each area's point creep rate over time so I know if I have a realistic shot of drawing (based on history). If a unit's point creep rate is growing at pace greater than or equal to my accrual of 1 point per year, I likely wont apply for that unit.

The random draw odds are basically zero (1-2%) across the board, so there would be no need analyze the random draw odds.

I wrote a script to import all the non-res pref point Elk draw odds since 2010 in to a database and built a simple dashboard to visualize the data.

Interesting bit of information... for a non-resident hunter in 2023 to draw a limited quota bull elk tag, it required on average across the state of Wyoming nearly 9 pref points to draw the tag in the special price draw and 10 pref points in the regular price draw. So that means the extra money in the special draw on average buys one extra pref point, which I know is not ground breaking info.

The average point creep rate for limited quote elk tags is .57 per year. In other words if you are 2 points away from drawing a tag, on average it will take 3-4 years to make up the ground and draw that tag.

Next step is to see if I can understand the point creep driver(s) by area; hunters who have been on the sideline and have decided to now jump in or if it is higher/max point holders who have switched from the few max impossible draw odds to a guaranteed tag or a reduction in available tags. Or maybe it is just the fact that more new non-res hunters are entering the system each year and they are just slowing working up through the system over time.

It will be interesting to see how the general area change and the special tag price change effect the odds of drawing an elk tag over the next 2-3 years.


View attachment 135471


FYI...the special price is not always better. In 2021 for area 55-1, the regular draw odds were 5 points better than the special

View attachment 135482

Nice analysis. I've come to a similar conclusion, but not quite as fancy.

There are so many factors in play. You've got people just buying points for years that jump in the draw, frustrated people burning points in units they haven't tried before, rifle tag hopefuls switching to archery to have a chance to draw. Some numbnut writes an article about how good unit XYZ is for 350 bulls is an instant 3-4 year creep. About the best we can do is to have a ballpark idea of how many points it will take to draw.

 

[HikeHunt61]

If only we could "enhance" the system to make it a closed loop system and not allow in new entrants, then we could get a tag every year. In other words, outfitter and landowner transferable tags!

Ouch...

 

[Gorilla]

Point creep is near impossible to judge...

This is true. I have to laugh at the hunt info websites that claim to have a "proprietary" odds predictor model available for purchase. If they truly had the ability to predict human behavior from year to year, then screw a stupid hunt'n website and take that model to wall street and make billions!

 

[Iowan]

Point creep or not - if you want to hunt elk via the public draw Wyoming is one of the few states that makes sense to pursue. If there is a better option involving points, I am not aware of it. If you are a non-resident with less than 20+ points for moose in Wyoming and you continue to buy points you are really bad at basic math. It is unbelievable to me there are non-residents buying their first or even fifteenth points for moose in Wyoming believing they have any real chance to ever draw even a cow tag even if they can hunt until they are 100 years old - it is a near mathematical impossibility. SAVE YOUR MONEY AND GO TO ALASKA OR ON ANOTHER HUNT.

Utah is a complete waste of money - the random odds ten years ago allowed you to think 'maybe' - most are below 1% odds now. Unless you have 15+ points or you are willing to take on a challenging hunt (late archery, etc.).

Arizona is a long shot / long term play at best for archery - all others nope.

You can forget ever getting one of the high demand tags in Colorado - the unit I have been chasing required seven points when I started and takes 18 now - adding a point consistently each year recently and trending higher for point creep. I am two away and I estimate it would take about 10 more years to catch those two points - even that may not happen.

Nevada - nope.

New Mexico - maybe in the outfitter pool or a lower demand unit.

Oregon/Washington - Nope.

Montana - I know nothing about to be honest.

Idaho - maybe, I do not invest here.

There is plenty to complain about but in reality, if you are not willing to build elk points in Wyoming nearly everything would be off the table too.

Of course, I live in Iowa where I can hunt almost non-stop and all resident tags are over the counter. Our legislators are adding 1,500 non-resident tags for whitetail this year.

 

[woodruffhunter]

Have you seen a list of the current NR point holders for elk in WY? there are currently 138,430 people with 1-5 points and 43,385 people with 6-18 points according to the chart I am looking at. If I wasnt already in the WY points game, I dont think I would start now

Good point. I saw this and was shocked!

 

[Mallardsx2]

if you think Wyoming is bad you should see how shitty Utah draw odds/creep is! Lol

 

[jims]

Take a look at how many nonres tags are issued in the toughest draw units. It only takes one or 2 applicants with the max pts required to draw to screw up plans. There could be high pref pt applicants that have only apply for pts each year and it doesn't take many to suddenly apply to screw draw odds in any given year or years.

As mentioned above, if a unit gets publicity, it's pts often pt leap.

 

[Gorilla]

Point creep or not - if you want to hunt elk via the public draw Wyoming is one of the few states that makes sense to pursue. If there is a better option involving points...

Randy Newburg shared the same thought in a recent YouTube video stating that Wy is a top 3 best value elk hunt in the west for non-res. @Iowan If you look at the non-res draw data for the past 3 years, you and Randy may want to change your thought process. Things have changed drastically in Wy in just the past 3 years for non-res.

And to be clear, I am not complaining. I am just pointing out some interesting fact from the data. I have a significant number of non-res elk points in Wy and have come to the conclusion that it will likely be a once-in-a-life time hunt. So I am going to treat it as such.

Wy doesn't have any OTC Elk opportunities for non-res. UT, ID, CO and MT all have some form of OTC Elk opportunities for non-res. Hell, even in Utah they sell unlimited GS archery elk tags. So as bad as the draw odds are for limited quota Elk tags, in Utah as a non-res you can still buy an OTC archery Elk tag the day before the season opener at Walmart.

Take a close look at this data. In the past three years, the avg point creep rate for the special price General Season Wy elk tag is .97 (let that sink in). So if nothing else changes and you have less than 4 points, you will never draw even a non- res GS elk tag in Wy in the special price draw. (I know a bit dramatic but driving home the message)

Now we know things are changing 2024 with WYGF testing the consumer price elasticity of elk hunting in Wy. My prediction is that any gains made in lowering demand by increasing the price will be negated by restricting the number of GS tags to the 3 areas. So I suspect these changes will have a nominal impact on non-res GS draw odds. And it will likely make it harder to draw a GS tag in the more high demand western area.

One last chart showing the draw odds for the GS elk tag (both regular and special price) going back to 2011. A non-res was able get a GS elk tag every other year up until 2018. Then their is a massive shift in demand that put the GS point creep rate on roughly the same rate as the max point curve. This is about the same time that YouTube/IG hunting channels really hit critical mass.

As a resident, Wy has the best elk hunting in the west hands down no questions asked. For a non-res elk hunter, Wy offers one of the top (if not the best) experiences from a quality perspective. Sadly and almost over night, Wy has dropped from the the top to near the bottom of the list in terms of opportunity given that even a GS elk tag is now likely an 8+ year proposition between tags.

 

[Mooretitan]

It all sucks my friend. Being a non resident is tough living now. Really makes me kick my younger self for not taking advantage of these tags 20 years ago. Oh well, at least the last 5 years I have been able to enjoy some hunts with the dad and boys. We seem to find away to get something on the ground. Hopefully when my dad is a little older I will start cashing in points for myself. Most states I am sitting around 10pts. Who knows what that will bring in 10 years. States keep moving the goal post of non residents

 

[jims]

You can be guaranteed that Randy's Youtube video and other comments from Eastman's and others is not going to help nonres Wyo draw odds in the near future and the coming years. It's also difficult to predict what will happen with nonres tag allocations in Wyo and other states. I hate to be the one predicting the "sky is falling down," but the demand for nonres tags and poor draw odds for nonres looks pretty dismal. You better live in a state in the Western US state with species you enjoy hunting or you may be screwed!

 

[WapitiBob]

Everybody get out while you can, then go hunt CO or UT otc.

 

[Iowan]

"If there is a better option involving points, I am not aware of it."

You were talking about point creep not over the counter opportunities. What state is better for elk hunting using a point system than Wyoming? I am 100% sure it is not Colorado-Utah-Arizona (maybe for archery)-Nevada-Oregon-Washington. It could be Montana - I do not apply there. I understand Wyoming has point creep and it will get worse - you mean like what has been happening for 20+ years in other point systems.

If you were advising an 18-year-old hunter which state to start building preference or bonus points for a future elk hunt for a 310"+ bull which state would it be? The hunter only has the resources to do one state. Muzzle loader or rifle are your weapon choices.

I am chasing an archery tag in a very well-known CO unit. I am currently two points behind. Point creep for that hunt has been close to one point annually for several years now and accelerating. With the large number of point holders above me it could take 10+ years to draw this tag or more. For half the points I could draw at least an equal unit in Wyoming. When I started building points this hunt took seven points for NR - closer to 18 now.

If your goal was to discourage people from applying in Wyoming, then I will tell everyone you are right, and no one should apply. I am sure you are not going to. I hunted Wyoming for elk two years ago and will be able to hunt that same unit in two more years thanks to a friend who is willing to let me apply with him as a group. I will have hunted WY two times for a great archery hunt before I draw my first tag in CO.

AK is the best non-resident option out there, but they do not use points. If I were a young person, I would put this near the top of my list. I started late but hope to keep learning and hunting AK.

Hunts out west or in AK are bonuses for me. No doubt you better live in a state that satisfies your hunting desires.

 

[jims]

Wyo currently has a lot of elk. I’m not sure what the population is but it may not last with all the additional tags being issued.

A great example of a great deal gone sour is Colorado mule deer. For years Colo was re-writing the B&C books. It didn’t take many years for the CPW to totally screw that up! At the time when Colo deer were doing so well no one had a clue that the MD population and quality would spiral so quickly.

This same thing happened in Utah’s limited elk units. Utah res complained they could draw limited tags so they increased tags. Look at how many B&C elk have come out of Utah since that time.

It wouldn’t take long for something similar to happen with elk in Wyo. Yep, Wyo elk are doing great now but your guess is as good as mine how long this lasts.

 

[DonVathome]

NR special elk tags odds will by a lot higher this year, then quickly return to normal. I agree with Jims, it is looking so bad for NR's everywhere vs 10 years ago, let alone 20. Also NR moose in WY, wow, I am shocked that no "extra" NR moose apps dropped, pretty much that same as past. Half the tags and everyone stays in. I study odds a lot and thought I had a handle on stuff, I was way off. I guessed 40% of NR moose apps would drop out in 2-3 years, most the first year. Hard no. They only hope is 3% give up each year and most do not apply for a tag each year.

 

[wytex]

Wyo currently has a lot of elk. I’m not sure what the population is but it may not last with all the additional tags being issued.

A great example of a great deal gone sour is Colorado mule deer. For years Colo was re-writing the B&C books. It didn’t take many years for the CPW to totally screw that up! At the time when Colo deer were doing so well no one had a clue that the MD population and quality would spiral so quickly.

This same thing happened in Utah’s limited elk units. Utah res complained they could draw limited tags so they increased tags. Look at how many B&C elk have come out of Utah since that time.

It wouldn’t take long for something similar to happen with elk in Wyo. Yep, Wyo elk are doing great now but your guess is as good as mine how long this lasts.

Barring a tremendous winter and massive die off, Wyoming elk will be fine for a while.
We have tons , too many in some areas.
Sky is not falling just yet.
Not every addition tag gets allocated or used.

 

[DaveD]

NR special elk tags odds will by a lot higher this year, then quickly return to normal. I agree with Jims, it is looking so bad for NR's everywhere vs 10 years ago, let alone 20. Also NR moose in WY, wow, I am shocked that no "extra" NR moose apps dropped, pretty much that same as past. Half the tags and everyone stays in. I study odds a lot and thought I had a handle on stuff, I was way off. I guessed 40% of NR moose apps would drop out in 2-3 years, most the first year. Hard no. They only hope is 3% give up each year and most do not apply for a tag each year.

Regarding moose & sheep, many are just blindly giving their money away without understanding the odds. I do think some people are staying in the game with the hope they switch to bonus points in the future.

 

[Sherlock]

Hard to predict some things with certainty, but I’ll predict this one thing…the day WY starts a res point system is the day I accelerate my plan to move there and start building res points immediately.

 

[fullcry]

At some point Wyoming will have to go to a point system like most everyone else.
Transferable land owner tags should be on the list too!!!

 

[Togwotee]

Point creep or not - if you want to hunt elk via the public draw Wyoming is one of the few states that makes sense to pursue. If there is a better option involving points, I am not aware of it. If you are a non-resident with less than 20+ points for moose in Wyoming and you continue to buy points you are really bad at basic math. It is unbelievable to me there are non-residents buying their first or even fifteenth points for moose in Wyoming believing they have any real chance to ever draw even a cow tag even if they can hunt until they are 100 years old - it is a near mathematical impossibility. SAVE YOUR MONEY AND GO TO ALASKA OR ON ANOTHER HUNT.

Utah is a complete waste of money - the random odds ten years ago allowed you to think 'maybe' - most are below 1% odds now. Unless you have 15+ points or you are willing to take on a challenging hunt (late archery, etc.).

Arizona is a long shot / long term play at best for archery - all others nope.

You can forget ever getting one of the high demand tags in Colorado - the unit I have been chasing required seven points when I started and takes 18 now - adding a point consistently each year recently and trending higher for point creep. I am two away and I estimate it would take about 10 more years to catch those two points - even that may not happen.

Nevada - nope.

New Mexico - maybe in the outfitter pool or a lower demand unit.

Oregon/Washington - Nope.

Montana - I know nothing about to be honest.

Idaho - maybe, I do not invest here.

There is plenty to complain about but in reality, if you are not willing to build elk points in Wyoming nearly everything would be off the table too.

Of course, I live in Iowa where I can hunt almost non-stop and all resident tags are over the counter. Our legislators are adding 1,500 non-resident tags for whitetail this year.

I've been in this game for 30 years and I've drawn a ton of great tags in that time. I feel like I have a pretty good handle on each state and you said it better than I could.

a lot of guys are just throwing their money away on ridiculous odds that they could use to go hunt with elsewhere. it's funny but sad at the same time.

I hunt Oregon, but only because it's my home state.

 

[elkantlers]

When will the proposed tag allocations and changes be available?

 

[BuzzH]

When will the proposed tag allocations and changes be available?

March

 

[Jeremy2019]

Why is it guys write Oregon off for elk hunting? Two different species to hunt and decent odds for drawing? I've heard Newberg say why drive past other states with elk to get to a different state but if you don't have a tag in those states they may as well not have elk because you cant hunt them anyway. Just curious

 

[DonVathome]

Regarding moose & sheep, many are just blindly giving their money away without understanding the odds. I do think some people are staying in the game with the hope they switch to bonus points in the future.

Good point, I agree some are throwing there $$$ away and do not understand. But some are expecting the system to change. I know a few guys that let app services apply them and they have no idea what is going on. Some think things are like they were a decade ago (or more) draw odds wise.

 

[HikeHunt61]

Good point, I agree some are throwing there $$$ away and do not understand. But some are expecting the system to change. I know a few guys that let app services apply them and they have no idea what is going on. Some think things are like they were a decade ago (or more) draw odds wise.

My son told me he wanted to start applying for Moose in Wyoming. Thank goodness he mentioned it. After I explained the system, odds and long-range costs based on PP, he held off. I mentioned they might someday change the system to BP, or maybe Moose populations explode upwards, or maybe Wyoming decides to up allocations (LOLOLOLOLOL)- but the math in any likely situation says "throwing $$$ away"- as you say.

Besides- if he really wants to hunt Moose- he can get his fix in Canada or Alaska.

 

[Togwotee]

Why is it guys write Oregon off for elk hunting? Two different species to hunt and decent odds for drawing? I've heard Newberg say why drive past other states with elk to get to a different state but if you don't have a tag in those states they may as well not have elk because you cant hunt them anyway. Just curious

If you're just talking spikes and rag horns which WY has a lot of you're right, Oregon is just as good. in fact OR is only second to CO in elk numbers.

But WY has a lot of units that are equal to OR's top units in quality. and a couple hunts that are better than anything in OR. as someone who's hunted many years in OR and several times in WY I can say it's worth trying for a tag there even if you still hunt here. it's simply a numbers game, put in for a dozen good elk tags and hope you draw on once in a while. .

 

[Jeremy2019]

If you're just talking spikes and rag horns which WY has a lot of you're right, Oregon is just as good. in fact OR is only second to CO in elk numbers.

But WY has a lot of units that are equal to OR's top units in quality. and a couple hunts that are better than anything in OR. as someone who's hunted many years in OR and several times in WY I can say it's worth trying for a tag there even if you still hunt here. it's simply a numbers game, put in for a dozen good elk tags and hope you draw on once in a while. .

I'm not talking which is better hunting Oregon compared to other states I'm talking why not consider it at all seems guys think it's not worth hunting? I'm also an Oregon resident who applies for other states. Now if we're talking mule deer than I would agree no way I would hunt Oregon not even remotely worth it for a non resident, but I think we have it pretty nice when it comes to elk.

 

[Joe2Kool]

That's a lot of data Gorilla! And very interesting to follow.

Models based on data take in statistical norms and averages. Yes, in an average year, points holders are jumping in, high point holders are bailing out, new applicants start the process, etc. And when you consider this among thousands of people, well, the models are good predictors.

Just like the stock market. I can predict that over time, it will generally increase. It will have down times, but over the long haul, it's going up. Just like point creep. I've seen some units go down from one year to the next, or stay flat. But over 5+ years, it will generally increase.

As we all know, Point Creep is real. I've got points in 6-7 states. When I started applying for AZ elk, the tags I was interested in took 5-6 points. I now have 11, and the tags require 14. At least I've gained a couple...Well, according to the model, 0.3 per year!