Draw Question....

[tallbuck1]

I was looking around at the draw odds web sites and I had a quick question. When the columns says "Total Applicants" does that me all who applied for that tag first in their own draw order?

For example with Antelope Island Big Horn Sheep, does it mean that the 462 total applicants applied for this tag first and they forgo not for Buck deer (premium limited-entry, limited-entry, CWMU and management buck deer,Bull elk (premium limited-entry, limited-entry and CWMU),Buck pronghorn (limited-entry and CWMU)
IMG]http://i207.photobucket.com/albums/bb170/tallbuck/ScreenShot2014-01-21at60911AM_zps07f262b6.png[/IMG][/URL]

Thanks for the clarification


Tallbuck1

 

[goofyelk]

It means there were 462 first choice applicants ...

Which is all that matters for LE & OIAL permits.
Very rarely, if ever will any of those permits go to a 2nd choice.

 

[tallbuck1]

Goofy, That's what I figured, thanks for the help!



Tallbuck1

 

[elkfromabove]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-21-14 AT 07:34PM (MST)[p]Also keep in mind that the figures shown don't tell the actual odds. They only show odds for individual applicants against all other applicants, but you're actually competing with your points against all the other applicants' points for that permit. In the example shown there were a total of 2010 numbers drawn, ie: 1 for each application and 1 for each point each applicant has and each applicant keeps his lowest number. In this case there is only 1 permit so the applicant with the lowest number drawn is the winner, period.

For instance, the single applicant on the top level has 18 points, so 19 numbers are drawn for him (1 for his application and 1 for each of his points). He keeps his lowest number and the other 18 are discarded. His lowest number now competes against the other 461 applicants' lowest numbers. It's true he now has only one number, but he had 19 chances to get the lowest number while the applicants on the bottom only get 1 chance to get the lowest number per their application. By dividing his 19 chances into the 2010 total numbers, he has a 1 in 106 chance of getting the permit while the bottom group only has a 1 in 2010 chance of getting it. All the others are somewhere in between. In this case the winner had a 1 in 287 chance of getting it. Obviously, luck plays a significant part in this draw.

If there's more than 1 tag, the story changes a bit because 50% of the tags (rounded down) go to the highest point group(s) in a similar draw, but after that the regular draw is pretty much like the example above. The only difference is that any of the applicants who don't draw in the top group(s) (because there may not be enough bonus permits) are given new numbers and put back into the regular draw.

In any case, good luck with your decision.

 

[desperatehills]

Well done Elkfromabove. I had a good idea how the system worked but never really did the math.

 

[tallbuck1]

Thank you for the clarification! Just need to wish myself luck in getting a low number against myself!

Thanks again!

Tallbuck1

 

[Bill_in_MI]

"The only difference is that any of the applicants who don't draw in the top group(s) (because there may not be enough bonus permits) are given new numbers and put back into the regular draw."

As a point holder, do they use your previously drawn low number?

If you are given a new number, do you get x chances based on x points in this part of the draw (I know this is the case for the bonus tag draw)?

Lastly, isn't it 'point total + 1 = chances' to draw a low number?

 

[elkfromabove]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-24-14 AT 00:27AM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Jan-23-14 AT 10:09?PM (MST)

LAST EDITED ON Jan-23-14 AT 07:44?PM (MST)

>"The only difference is that any
>of the applicants who don't
>draw in the top group(s)
>(because there may not be
>enough bonus permits) are given
>new numbers and put back
>into the regular draw."
>
>As a point holder, do they
>use your previously drawn low
>number?
>
>If you are given a new
>number, do you get x
>chances based on x points
>in this part of the
>draw (I know this is
>the case for the bonus
>tag draw)?
>
>Lastly, isn't it 'point total +
>1 = chances' to draw
>a low number?

No, they do not use their previous low number. It is discarded and the same draw process is done again for them. They draw 1 number for their application and 1 number for each point and they keep the lowest while the rest are discarded. Now they have a new lowest number that competes against the other applicants' lowest numbers in the hunt. And the lowest numbers get the remaining tags regardless of how many points they had. It's the luck of the draw, folks, if you're not in the top group(s).

Yes, it is point total + 1. I just worded it differently by saying it's 1 for the application and 1 for each of the points.

One thing I failed to mention is that the 1st choice draws for OIL and LE are also separated by resident and non-resident. Sorry I missed that! It gets a little tricky for mixed group applications, but no resident will ever get a non-resident permit as his 1st choice and visa-versa. However, 2nd, 3rd, etc. choices are not separated, but they rarely happen with OIL and LE anyway so it isn't much of an issue like it is with the General hunt draws.

 

[elkfromabove]

>
>One thing I failed to mention
>is that the 1st choice
>draws for OIL and LE
>are also separated by resident
>and non-resident. Sorry I missed
>that! It gets a little
>tricky for mixed group applications,
>but no resident will ever
>get a non-resident permit as
>his 1st choice and visa-versa.
>However, 2nd, 3rd, etc. choices
>are not separated, but they
>rarely happen with OIL and
>LE anyway so it isn't
>much of an issue like
>it is with the General
>hunt draws.

Oops! I didn't say that right! Of course a resident NEVER gets (or pays the price of) a non-resident permit and visa versa. It's just that the separate quotas are combined on the 2nd, 3rd, etc. choices and the combined number of remaining tags is filled by either. It's referred to as "crossover usage" in DWR's contract with the drawing company. (CWMU's are the exception since non-residents aren't allowed to apply in the public drawing.)

Rules, rules, rules! Exceptions, exceptions, exceptions! Don't you love it?