Hard draws

I’m in for 66 4th deer and 61 muzzleloader elk. Both hunts are part of the hybrid draw I think it is where a very small number of tags could go to someone at any point level. I should draw both. :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: I’m feeling lucky!!!!!
 
Those hybrid draws have been my first choices the last few years. Of course, it's about the same as putting in the preference point code.
 
I did the same 61 hybrid draw for a couple years, and just knew every year I would get it. Decided to get out of the wait this year. And shooting for 76.
 
buckhorn said:
What facts are you basing that comment on?
Click to expand...

I'm guessing based on everyone predicting point creep?

Screenshot_20210418-140426_Adobe Acrobat.jpg
 
38% of residents Drew with zero points and 80% of non-residents Drew with one point.
It seems that most of the attention this year is on the other Gunnison units. Don’t see many people mentioning 54 this year.
I actually feel pretty good about my chances
 
All the attention is on 66 and 67, that is where the real jump is going to be. 54 and 55 will be minimal. At least that's what I'm hoping for, lol.
 
You guys are kidding yourself. 54 and 55 are going to see big increases. I know it makes you feel good at this point to think you have a chance. Last years drawing odds have absolutely no effect on this years draw. I expect 54 to be 5 to guarantee a tag.

Rich
 
Rich we are just thinking positive. We would not have applied for these hunts if we thought we did not have a chance to draw.
Last year there were 86 tags issued to non-residents for 54 second season. 43 out of 54 of them went to applicants with only one point.
80% draw rate for 1 point applications.
I’m asking all non residents who applied for 54 2nd with one or more points to please chime in and be counted.
Thanks
 
Founder said:
I’m in for 66 4th deer and 61 muzzleloader elk. Both hunts are part of the hybrid draw I think it is where a very small number of tags could go to someone at any point level. I should draw both. :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: I’m feeling lucky!!!!!
Click to expand...
...unfortunately highly unlikely if not impossible for a NR to draw a hybrid elk or deer tag.. NR’s are still subject to the NR caps and the hybrid draw takes place after the regular draw after the NR quota caps have already been met so there are no NR tags available in the hybrid draw...

Horniac
 
Horniac said:
...unfortunately highly unlikely if not impossible for a NR to draw a hybrid elk or deer tag.. NR’s are still subject to the NR caps and the hybrid draw takes place after the regular draw after the NR quota caps have already been met so there are no NR tags available in the hybrid draw...

Horniac
Click to expand...
Yes that is the way I understand the Hybrid draws.
It’s basically for residents only.
But I did read from another poster that we may be able to change our choices!
 
buckhorn said:
Rich we are just thinking positive. We would not have applied for these hunts if we thought we did not have a chance to draw.
Last year there were 86 tags issued to non-residents for 54 second season. 43 out of 54 of them went to applicants with only one point.
80% draw rate for 1 point applications.
I’m asking all non residents who applied for 54 2nd with one or more points to please chime in and be counted.
Thanks
Click to expand...
I wish you all the luck in the world and I would love for you to get a tag and kill a 200 inch buck, hell I would help you with what I know about 54 if you drew. I just want you to understand the realistic odds of you drawing. I spend countless hours talking to taxidermists, guides, folks on here, other websites, ranchers and pay attention to the publications. I was just trying to let you know that from all of that is how I make my conclusion. I am retired and have time to burn and do more research than I care to admit. I applied my wife for a 67 2nd tag with 4 points knowing good and well she won't draw. If you were hell bent on hunting Colorado this year your second choice matters. That is what I was getting at. I wish you the best and good luck.

Rich
 
As mentioned above I don’t think nonres have a chance at hybrid draw tags. You can look at past draw stats and notice how many tags are issued to nonres in hybrid units with under max pts. I don’t think there are any?
 
FWIW, no NR has ever, nor will ever, draw in the Hybrid Draw for elk or deer, as long as the draw algorithm remains unchanged. OTOH, NR's can draw for Pronghorn in the hybrid, since there's no NR quota limit.
 
buckhorn said:
38% of residents Drew with zero points and 80% of non-residents Drew with one point.
It seems that most of the attention this year is on the other Gunnison units. Don’t see many people mentioning 54 this year.
I actually feel pretty good about my chances
Click to expand...
If you knew how many calls and messages I’ve had about 54 you’d think different... everything in the basin is heavily under the radar right now. Look for 2 to 3 point point creep in the basin this year minimum.
 
The_Coloradoboy said:
If you knew how many calls and messages I’ve had about 54 you’d think different... everything in the basin is heavily under the radar right now. Look for 2 to 3 point point creep in the basin this year minimum.
Click to expand...
I'm in for 67 2nd with 5 points as a NR and I think my only hope is if the proposed tag increase goes through. I have a back up plan all ready to go but I sure would love to draw this tag!
 
Well after reading what Cole and Rich have to say maybe I’m not so optimistic after all.
I have heard rumors about Tag increasing but don’t imagine they would increase 54 second more than the current 325 it’s at now.
Thoughts?
I did make a second choice but not really confident on it now.
Thanks
 
We are in for 67 2nd with 3pts, 88% drew it last year with 3pts. Probably will not draw it this year. Dang it.
 
lostinOregon said:
I wish you all the luck in the world and I would love for you to get a tag and kill a 200 inch buck, hell I would help you with what I know about 54 if you drew. I just want you to understand the realistic odds of you drawing. I spend countless hours talking to taxidermists, guides, folks on here, other websites, ranchers and pay attention to the publications. I was just trying to let you know that from all of that is how I make my conclusion. I am retired and have time to burn and do more research than I care to admit. I applied my wife for a 67 2nd tag with 4 points knowing good and well she won't draw. If you were hell bent on hunting Colorado this year your second choice matters. That is what I was getting at. I wish you the best and good luck.

Rich
Click to expand...
What’s your prediction on pts for this yr for 67?
 
It would be nice to know tag allotments so we'd all know! It's hard to say what will happen. Will the CPW increase tags in their quest to "cull" mature bucks with later season dates or will they consider being somewhat conservative to prevent the collapse of mule deer in Colo as we currently know it?
 
jims said:
It would be nice to know tag allotments so we'd all know! It's hard to say what will happen. Will the CPW increase tags in their quest to "cull" mature bucks with later season dates or will they consider being somewhat conservative to prevent the collapse of mule deer in Colo as we currently know it?
Click to expand...
Yes we are just going to have to wait until 2021 quotas are posted And we’re going to have to wait until the draw results are posted before we know anything for sure. Until then it’s really all just speculation.
 
I put my buddy and me in for 54 2nd. We only have one point. I don't expect to draw, but you never know. I think that a lot of guys that were collecting points for a 3rd season tag in 54 will settle for a 2nd season tag this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see some major point jump on this unit.
I have talked to some guys that are applying for Gunnison units with lots of points I think that 66 and 67 2nd. are gonna have HUGE point leaps!

Don P
 
accubond said:
If 2nd season creeps 8 points how much are you estimating 3rd season to jump?
Click to expand...
My guess would be 5 for 67 3rd. There is less of a gap between 3rd and 4th then there is between 2nd and 3rd. I think points will go back down a bit in the future, this could be the highest amount of points used during this 5 year period.
 
nripepi said:
My guess would be 5 for 67 3rd. There is less of a gap between 3rd and 4th then there is between 2nd and 3rd. I think points will go back down a bit in the future, this could be the highest amount of points used during this 5 year period.
Click to expand...
Well, I hope you're wrong??!
 
peez3006 said:
I put my buddy and me in for 54 2nd. We only have one point. I don't expect to draw, but you never know. I think that a lot of guys that were collecting points for a 3rd season tag in 54 will settle for a 2nd season tag this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see some major point jump on this unit.
I have talked to some guys that are applying for Gunnison units with lots of points I think that 66 and 67 2nd. are gonna have HUGE point leaps!

Don P
Click to expand...
Don may I ask if you’re a resident or nonresident? Do you both have one point each?
Thanks
 
Like mentioned above, I wonder if they will publish how many points were burned in the draw this year and how it compares to years past. Seems a lot of people are using extra points this year, myself included. We used 12 for a unit that took 7/8 points last year.
 
What do you guys make of the number of deer applicants remaining flat this year in comparison to last year?
 
accubond said:
What do you guys make of the number of deer applicants remaining flat this year in comparison to last year?
Click to expand...
To expand further, we all know the Basin is gonna see wild creep for deer this year but nobody is talking about the elk picture. Overall the deer apps and tags are showing an identical increase this year at 1%. Elk on the other hand is showing a 13.5% increase in apps and a 4.5% decrease in tags. What do you guys make of this, lots of disappointed, would-be elk hunters, point creep for deer possibly not as bad as we thought outside the high profile areas/units?
 
I think there will be less creep then what has been hyped up to be. We will know in a month or so. People throwing out random guesses on the creep is entertaining though
 
I think that lots of guys that have been applying for points are going to apply for hunts this year. New applicants wouldn't make for point creep. It's the guys with a load of points that "may" come out of the woodwork. We'll know soon enough.

Don P
 
I think guys in the elk point world are realizing that they will never catch the NW corner hunts and are cashing in and then will get out or go to a lower point unit they can hunt often.

Rich
 
^^^^^^ What he said^^^^^^

I have 14 points and I will burn them in the next couple years. I never was thinking I would hunt the NW corner. I just thought the more points I had the better unit I would get. After that it will be what ever I can get every 3 years or so.
 
I bought elk points for about 4 years, then quit. But now because it’s only $9 addition (I believe), I’ve bought one last year and this year. Not sure I’ll ever use them, but maybe. I’m not sure 6 points is good for anything??? Maybe a 1st season rifle somewhere..??
 
Founder said:
I bought elk points for about 4 years, then quit. But now because it’s only $9 addition (I believe), I’ve bought one last year and this year. Not sure I’ll ever use them, but maybe. I’m not sure 6 points is good for anything??? Maybe a 1st season rifle somewhere..??
Click to expand...
I’m like you Founder I bought Elk points for a few years and when I started doing research on hunts I could draw with low points I determined that the OTC hunts are probably as good or better than low point hunts.
There are some cow elk hunts that can be drawn easily but who wants to spend that kind of money for an out-of-state cow elk?
 
I imagine some of the new elk applicants are applying for formerly OTC archery units that are now on a draw. A couple thousand archery elk tags are now distributed in a draw in SW CO. Last year, many of these didn't draw out and had leftovers, but with proposed quota cuts and increased apps, that may not be the case this year.
 

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