Muzzleloader Draw Odds

[mlycrzy]

With the removal of scopes this year do you feel there will be noticeable decrease in applicants across the board for muzzy hunts?

I put in for a LE muzzy bull tag this year and using last years data I would be out of the bonus pool unless enough folks jumped ship due to the change. Most of my friends and family that use a muzzeloader say they will still put in for muzzy. General deer anyways.

 

[JakeH]

I doubt it will be significant, you got to remember for all the people dropping out because of the new rules, there will probably be just as many jumping in because of all the talk about odds getting better.

 

[ElmerFudd]

New Mexico banned scopes on muzzleloaders last year. It's a reasonable guess to assume the muzzleloader application change last year in New Mexico (not a lot) will be similar to this year in Utah.

 

[arwaterfowler]

New Mexico banned scopes on muzzleloaders last year. It's a reasonable guess to assume the muzzleloader application change last year in New Mexico (not a lot) will be similar to this year in Utah.

I was gonna say the same thing

 

[yotebuster17]

Odds will get slightly worse or stay the same. They won’t get better. I’ve seen no fewer then a dozen threads asking same thing. It get people’s interest and they pile on, everyone wants a deal. It definitely won’t drop the bonus pass much, might make simple odds a tiny bit better because guys might not put their grandpa or girlfriend in for them but the serious high point holders are gonna be all over it trying to get a “deal”.

 

[rmanwill]

LE muzzy hunts that you are talking about will be worst odds in my opinion if people research last years numbers.

With early regular rifle tags being cut to about a 1/3 of original numbers the point creep just went through the roof for the early rifle adding many years to a persons chances to draw. In some units only left a single random tag for NR (ouch, now that hurts).

Not to mention that the early rifle hunt is now only five days after waiting for so long to draw, where the muzzy hunt will be 10 days.

Success rates for both the early rifle and muzzy are 100% or very close for most unit.

Yes, you have to get closer and use your stalking/hunting skills with a muzzy hunt and can't just sit across a canyon or numerous canyons and dial in the turret on the rifle hunt and squeeze the trigger.

I know what I'd do if it was me and I was not in the very top point pool. Time will tell. Everyone has their own opinion and I'm sure with last year being the first year, application choices and odds may do some flip flopping this year based on last years odds.

Good luck in the draws everyone.

 

[BearBait49]

More than likely odds will get a little worse on the LE hunts based on the mindset I think most applicants will have. It will be interesting to see how the numbers play out

 

[Vanilla]

You have to remember, magnification scopes were only allowed in Utah for what, five or six years? Prior to that, all muzzleloader hunters were used to hunting without magnified scopes.

The people that picked up muzzloader hunting just for a magnified scope and entered the muzzy pool will drop out and back to one of the rifle pools, but that number isn’t significant. I doubt the LE muzzy pools change much at all. You might see a noticeable transition in general season deer, however. But even then, it won’t be huge.

 

[TheOneRidgeRunner]

Last years draw odds for elk are meaningless. So many people jumped to muzzy due to the early rifle hunt going to a 5 day hunt, you'd have to look back 2-4 years to get semi accurate data

 

[Vanilla]

Last years draw odds for elk are meaningless. So many people jumped to muzzy due to the early rifle hunt going to a 5 day hunt, you'd have to look back 2-4 years to get semi accurate data

There were some pretty substantial changes across the elk plan that went into effect last year.

You don’t need to look 2-4 years back. That’s old, outdated data. What people need to do is wait 2-4 years going forward to see how the new plan distributes hunters and applicants. That’s not super helpful for today’s applicants, but it’s the reality. It will be at least 2026 app period until you can really make sense of the current trend.

 

[mlycrzy]

I agree with most here. I don’t see a significant drop happening with muzzy applicants but I would be surprised if there was a substantial increase.

Either way there is always a chance no matter how little it might be of drawing a LE tag. I apply in 4 states and I always get a little nervous of the possibility of hitting on all 4 and having to turn back a tag but it hasn’t happened yet. Good luck to you guys.

 

[BrowningRage]

I'd say there will be some number changes. For your elk hunt, I'd guess a guy or two ahead of you might switch to a rifle tag based on rifle hunt numbers from last year, but a couple guys here and there won't have much impact overall.

I think it'll have more impact on LE deer and general deer. I think there were a number of people hoping for a LR Muzzy hunt for deer who will move to rifle now... at least I hope this is true for a couple people close to me who hunt muzzy without scopes already, who are close to the top point pools...

 

[hossblur]

Judging by the two years of meltdowns and tantrums including fixing of committee members you'd assume no one would put in for muzzy.

All the blind dudes, dudes who bought LE set ups, dudes who want smaller government, dudes who can shoot 2000 yards with peep sights. I'm sure all those dudes dropped out


Or, the odds won't change, not one of them dropped out

 

[ElmerFudd]

I bet neither draw odds nor hunter success on muzzleloader hunts changes much.

 

[Deerlove]

Just smaller critters taken.

 

[Hunter21]

Judging by the two years of meltdowns and tantrums including fixing of committee members you'd assume no one would put in for muzzy.

All the blind dudes, dudes who bought LE set ups, dudes who want smaller government, dudes who can shoot 2000 yards with peep sights. I'm sure all those dudes dropped out


Or, the odds won't change, not one of them dropped out

Just because some guys didn’t want or agree with the change doesn’t mean they don’t still prefer to hunt with a muzzleloader.

 

[hossblur]

Just because some guys didn’t want or agree with the change doesn’t mean they don’t still prefer to hunt with a muzzleloader.

You aren't the guys I'm talking about. Not wanting or agreeing is a world different than the crap that went on.

Doxing committee members, lawsuit threats, a bunch of dudes went way over the top on that one.

 

[Mallardsx2]

I think people are going to look at the draw odds and apply for whatever hunt gives them the best chance at a tag be damned the regulations or weapon.

I'll be honest, that's what I do. I look for a middle of the pack hunt with the "best odds" and I apply for it. Every single year. Typically, a 2-5% chance of drawing.

If I could be guaranteed to hunt my 1 Utah Elk hunt (that I might draw in 1lifetime) with a spear, I would be on the mountain. I wish I could check a box that states that "I promise to only hunt Utah 1 time in my life" for better odds. lol

 

[Muleman1]

I think everyone thinks there will be a decrease in people putting in, which will make everybody put in lol

 

[Deerlove]

I think people are going to look at the draw odds and apply for whatever hunt gives them the best chance at a tag be damned the regulations or weapon.

I'll be honest, that's what I do. I look for a middle of the pack hunt with the "best odds" and I apply for it. Every single year. Typically, a 2-5% chance of drawing.

If I could be guaranteed to hunt my 1 Utah Elk hunt (that I might draw in 1lifetime) with a spear, I would be on the mountain. I wish I could check a box that states that "I promise to only hunt Utah 1 time in my life" for better odds. lol

The state would rather you wait and keep paying for that hunting license every year

 

[Mallardsx2]

The state would rather you wait and keep paying for that hunting license every OTHER year

FIFY lol

 

[Iowan]

Point creep in Utah (every state) will continue for all species and weapon choices. It is a mathematical certainty.

 

[Gator]

Roll those Dice and hope they come up all 6's

 

[D_Hoyt]

I think it depends on the species and unit. We will just have to wait for the data to be released so we can start the comparisons.

Personally, I hope several top bonus point holders have bad eyesight so they opt for rifle permits and their scopes. I know my eyesight is way worse than it was a decade ago. I do think a lot of people will view this change as an opportunity to burn points.

 

[go4steelhd]

I don't think it will make any difference in odds with the changes. If they went flint lock and ball I think you would see some changes in odds

 

[Katoom]

I don't think it will make any difference in odds with the changes. If they went flint lock and ball I think you would see some changes in odds

Probably not... only thing that would happen is the flintlock and roundball sellers would have slightly better year. I'd be HAPPY to only hunt flintlock for the rest of my life if western states would put that rule in and offer me tags! And I have never even shot one!

 

[yotebuster17]

Probably not... only thing that would happen is the flintlock and roundball sellers would have slightly better year. I'd be HAPPY to only hunt flintlock for the rest of my life if western states would put that rule in and offer me tags! And I have never even shot one!

If I could get rut tags in good units every year where you had to use a busted off beer bottle I’d put in for em.

 

[DBLung]

I haven't read all the comments, but I would almost bet muzzy LE odds are going to be worse. I've talked to a lot of people who've switched to muzzleloader hoping the odds will be down. LE rifle will be down. General hunts will be the same.

 

[Gator]

DB could be right on the money, BUT H#LL I still put in for ML.

 

[elkassassin]

Hey Nilly!

You Know what this Is?

There were some pretty substantial changes across the elk plan that went into effect last year.

You don’t need to look 2-4 years back. That’s old, outdated data. What people need to do is wait 2-4 years going forward to see how the new plan distributes hunters and applicants. That’s not super helpful for today’s applicants, but it’s the reality. It will be at least 2026 app period until you can really make sense of the current trend.

 

[Vanilla]

Yes.

How many you got?

 

[elkassassin]

A Couple Now!

 

[elkassassin]

They're Up In Price 250.00-300.00 After The DRATville SmokePole Scope Rule / Law Change!

 

[HNTNFSH]

Hey Nilly!

You Know what this Is?

View attachment 144632



View attachment 144632

 

[HNTNFSH]

They're Up In Price 250.00-300.00 After The DRATville SmokePole Scope Rule / Law Change!

WHAT IS THAT

 

[rmanwill]

Hey Nilly!

You Know what this Is?

View attachment 144632



View attachment 144632