In every western state (including those with point systems) we have seen a significant increase in applicants. NM didn't see a significant increase in applicants over AZ because NM doesn't have a point system. COVID, the stimulus money and social media are all to blame for the increase in applicants.
My argument still is, point systems will increase the number of applicants that apply every year which then decreases the odds of each individual. For example, if NM implemented a point system in 2022 we would see a significant increase in applicants in 2022 because everyone would want to get in on the "ground floor". Every year after that, everyone would continue to apply because they wouldn't want to get behind in the point game. It would then become very difficult to ever draw a gila elk tag unless you were in the max point pool. Even 20 years later we would still see guys with max points that haven't drawn. Just look at the point creep Colorado has seen over the last 20 years.
Point systems work ok for easy to draw tags were there are enough tags for at least 20% of the applicants. When there are only enough tags for 5% of the applicants or less, then flaws in point systems become very obvious.
When I finally draw Nevada and Arizona, I'm done with them. By the time you calculate how much it has cost to get 20 points, then the cost of the tag, that's a big chunk of change that could be used to buy a tag. Of course the cost to buy the best tags is still a LOT more than that.With the rise in popularity in Western hunting I am convinced that if I would like to continue to hunt frequently in the future I am going to have to work hard and just pay the money for landowner tags. By the time you apply in multiple states, accumulate preference points and then eventually draw a tag you are going to have payed in quite a chunk of change and by that point I will be an old man and not able to hunt as hard.
With that being said, leave New Mexico's system alone. Straight up luck of the draw is the best system. Preference points are a scam and I agreed with BrianID, they encourage more and more people to keep applying every year.
You are dang sure way more accurate with this reply , #2 YOU ARE SPOT ON...1) No you can't look at the total tags available for a hunt code. You can only rely on what is available to you as a resident and non-outfitter pool as all the tags are not available to you but those additional applications are still stacked against you. You can only use the remaining 84% of the available tags in your scenario.
2) You cannot disregard 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choices as each of those are a place holder against you. It's really no different than
an application only getting one choice and each of those placeholder choices being one of those "one choice applications".
3) Your example above acts as 3000 "applicants" because the other two choices are always ahead of yours, so your odds are really 3.3% you are likely to pull that tag. Your example is really (assuming you're even in the running) that you have a 10% chance your app is looked in that hunt code pool before the tags are all assigned. You would be correct if they only looked at the 1st choice for everyone before moving on to the other two choices. The odds your talking about are that everyone in that hunt code gets one chance to pull 1 of 100 green marbles out of a bag of 1000, 800 being red marbles. The way it really works is there are 3000 people being allowed to try and pull 1 of those marbles out of a bag full of 1000, 100 of them are green and 800 are red. When all the green marbles are chosen and you're not one of them, you spend time studying and planning for next year because your strategy failed because all of your hunt code choices repeated this process.
4) Inductive reasoning, while in this case panned out, isn't necessarily repeatable because now myself and several other lurkers know your "secret" and will apply this way next year decreasing your chances of drawing this tag again. Others will listen to Pod Casts and learn this secret as well, or watch NMDGF's video presentation on how to increase "odds". Pool hopping is why you cannot rely on anecdotal evidence. PERIOD!!! So, what happens for the next 5 years that your son is now one of the remaining "3 applicants" that doesn't get to even have the chance to pull a marble from the bag...?
Well it's a good thing the draw is over and the time you say I've "wasted" writing dozens of posts on a topic I'm indifferent about has only taken less than 30 days, and I still have until March 5 of 2022 to study odds that are not true odds to begin with because everything still hinges on that one roll of the dice against the other complete and total number of applications.
I have "studied and planned" and have put in for those hunt codes where tags go to a few number of applicants, and some that are spread nearly evenly across 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choices to no avail. Consistent bad luck is why my anecdotal evidence tells me studying and planning is irrelevant. When your sample size is large enough, as in your case, favorable "odds" are usually in your favor.
Plain dumb luck of getting the right draw sequence number is what NM's draw system is all about. That's why some people, year after year, pull good tags which refutes your entire post that rails against mine. My point, obviously not stated clearly, is that the odds of NM's draw system are not what you think they are.
If they did not stack you up against everyone's application at the start, I would agree they have the best draw system.
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