WY Pref. Pts. going into the 2010 Draw

[HornedToad]

LAST EDITED ON Nov-08-09 AT 07:12AM (MST)[p]Wyoming has posted its Preference Points (PP) going into the 2010 Draw. The analysis below is for Non-resident Bighorn Sheep.

Attrition - The number of applicants dropping-out (attrition) increased in 2009 to 1,156. These were replaced by 967 new applicants. The total number of applicants going into 2010 stands at 7,045, compared to 7,284 going into 2009. As would be expected, the majority of the 1,156 attrition occured in the lower PP brackets, from 1 to 9. Attrition rates in the higher PP brackets, from 10 to 14, remained low. For example, of 184 applicants with 10 PP for the 2009 draw, 177 remain, now with 11 PP, for the 2010 draw. Since 1 applicant with 10 PP drew a tag in 2009, the reduction from 184 to 177 implies that only 6 dropped out. That is about a 3% attrition rate, despite the reality that those in this PP class still have, on average, about 10 years until 2019 to draw a tag.

Year to Draw - I have a model that predicts the MEDIAN year to draw for each PP class going into the 2010 draw. This is not the first year to draw, nor the last, but rather is a projected middle year, or median. Half of all applicants in each PP class who draw will do better, and half will do worse. (Others might have different estimates... please don't attack the model... it is only an approximation based on a number of assumptions... if you have a different estimate, let's hear it).

PP / Year / Change from 2009

01 / 2042 / na
02 / 2040 / -2
03 / 2038 / -2
04 / 2037 / -2
05 / 2035 / -2
06 / 2033 / -2
07 / 2032 / -1
08 / 2028 / -2
09 / 2026 / -1
10 / 2022 / -1
11 / 2019 / 0
12 / 2017 / 0
13 / 2014 / -1
14 / 2013 / +1
15 / 2011 / +1

The above model continues to assume a significant attrition rate, as more applicants drop out after realizing that, for their $100 annual PP fee, they will likely never draw before they are too old to hunt (or drop out for various other reasons). For example, going into 2010 there are 176 applicants with 11 PP. The model predicts that 90 of these will eventually draw, but 86 will drop out... almost a 50% attrition rate. For the 549 applicants with 10 PP, 200 will draw, but 349, or about 64%, will drop out. Obviously, if attrition rates are less than predicted, the actual number of years to draw could be much greater than the estimate predicted by the model.

It is always interesting to review the change over the years in the number of MAX Pt. applicants, who began building points in 1995 and will have 15 PP going into the 2010 draw.

Year / MAX no. / %Change

1995 / 1,421 / na
1996 / 1,086 / -24%
1997 / 848 / -22%
1998 / 741 / -13%
1999 / 632 / -15%
2000 / 537 / -15%
2001 / 455 / -15%
2002 / 397 / -13%
2003 / 330 / -17%
2004 / 282 / -15%
2005 / 236 / -16%
2006 / 191 / -19%
2007 / 139 / -27%
2008 / 93 / -33%
2009 / 55 / -41%
2010 / 45 / -18%

It is somewhat puzzling that the attrition from 2009 to 2010 was only 10 applicants, or 18% (8 drew permits and 2 dropped-out). Perhaps these final holdouts from the "Class of 1995" have become even more picky in their area choices. Clearly, most of these MAX Pt. applicants could draw in 2010, if they spread their applications across all areas, but with selectivity bias favoring the best units, or with a continuing deferrals of draw applications (only 13 of the 55 Max Pt. holders submitted draw applications in 2009... 42 applied for PP only) it is any guess as to how many years will pass by before the last member of this storied class will fade into the sunset.

Good luck in the 2010 Draw!

HT

 

[ColoradoOak]

Thanks for doing this again. It's no less depressing this year than last, although you are predicting that I have a chance to hunt there by the time I'm 60.

Any plans to run the moose numbers?

 

[HornedToad]

No on Moose. I got impatient and in 2004 applied for and drew a tag in a "secondary" moose unit, Area 5 Pinedale, and took a good bull, but certainly no whooper. Even in 2004, this was after the wolves from Yellowstone had supposedly reduced moose numbers in Area 5, and my guide encouraged me to take the bull that I did. I went ahead and applied for Area 5 after it appeared that the wait for one of the "premier" moose areas would take many years.

It is interesting to consider the effect of selectivity bias on the draw predictions. As the years go by, those potential applicants holding the most preference points tend to hold out and apply only for the "best" units (or at least those perceived to be the best at the time).

In considering the "median" year to draw a sheep tag, those who draw before the median will generally be drawing in the "inferior" areas (though some will get lucky on a premier area early, say through the Random Draw), while those drawing after the median will be drawing in the "premier" areas. Any applicant who is determined to hunt one of the best sheep areas in Wyoming, or nothing, will likely have a longer wait than implied by the median year in the model.

HT

 

[ElmerFudd]

Most interesting thing to me is that 42 of 55 max points applicants went points only (why the max points # dropped so little, 55 to 45), when it costs $100/year and you are risking a rule change sometime that may change your draw odds significantly....I'm thinking you want to cash out as soon as possible, knowing that it reduces overall cost and before they change the points system that is so biased towards first in.

Anyway, it's good for the max-1 14 points now applicants like me If they don't change things, should have my tag in not too many more years, and I'm definitly in the running for max points tags now...

 

[kilowatt]

Gee, if I start now I can draw when I turn 98 years old. No sense in bothering to apply then.

Brian

 

[MNHunter]

Wow, they relesaed the info early this year. Thanks for the heads up & the analysis again HT....hopefully it will discourage more applicants & increase my odds
"Whatever you are, be a good one."
- Abraham Lincoln

 

[Zeke]

Great info, Thanks! I though I was the only one in the world who looked at numbers with that amount of detail. I'm an amature!
Years age I drew a Colorado Bighorn tag (Got a ram) with the new 3 pt max system. Sooooooo, when Wyo changed to points I missed the first year. After calculations based on applicants I didn't apply thinking I would NEVER draw. Oh crap I was DUMB!
I now have 11 pts but would be very close had I just always applied! I would have been like a lot of you, (Max-1=14) instead of where I am. (Dumb-abunch=11).
Just apply or build points. It's cheaper than booking a hunt in Alberta! (I want to do that too, May I borrow some money? LOL)
Zeke

 

[Cozmo8]

HT I think you are optimistic again. The attrition rate of 3% for the top pools decreased 50% from the previous year. From 2008 to 2009 it was around 7%. I think we are starting to see the bottom or close to it for attrition rate. For my sake I hope it continues at 3% but may drop lower. Optimistically it would be nice to see it increase. I do not think over the next 10 years half of the people in my pool will drop out. I have 11 points and am thinking I am still 14-18 years away from drawing, with a median of 16. I will be optimistic and say 14-15 years for the 11 point holders.

 

[HornedToad]

You certainly may be right. Comparing my 2010 forecast with the previous year 2009, it is clear that I was slightly too aggressive on estimated attrition rates for some classes (MAX and MAX-1) and too conservative on others (the lower point classes). But who would have predicted that the 55 MAX Pt. holders going into 2009 would only draw 8 permits, and that over 40 would apply for Pref. Pts. only, given the stats of the previous several years. That shows the difficulty of making predictions based on past behavior.

But at some point, TIME and AGE will have to become a limiting factor. The reality is that no one can keep applying forever. Take your example of an 11 PP holder. What would you guess is the average age of such a person? If the average age is, say, 46, meaning that the first application, 11 years ago, was at age 35, and the "median" year to draw for this class is still 14 to 16 years out, meaning that half of the permits would be drawn after the median year, is it realistic to expect that over half of this group will still be around to continue applying to climb steep mountains well into their late 60's and early 70's?

I agree that it is difficult to believe that 50% of the current 11 PP holders may not stick around to eventually draw permits... but only time will tell.

HT

 

[huntin100]

Thanks for the info Horned Toad. I'm one who dropped out last year. I was about 3 behind max. At 100 bucks a year, the cost of the tag, being very limited in areas you can draw without hiring an outfitter were part of the reasons. I Lucked out and drew a Montana sheep tag last year. I would love to hunt sheep again. Just not worth the cost and odds for me in Wyoming. Good luck to others.

 

[Cozmo8]

As the lower point holders drop out I hope that some of the random tags go to the applicants with more points. IF all 7200 (est.) hunters with points applied the point holders in 11 to max would have a 10% chance of drawing in the Random. I realize the math is not that simple as some high point applicants may be applying for units with no random permits as well as other factors. Also, it seems like there are still a lot of people only applying for points.

I am with you. I cannot quite figure why so many max point holders would hold out. The Max-1 applicants must be loving it. They are essentially beating the clock by a few years.

The other thing I have been looking at is residency drift. It looks like in one of the upper pools this year a few people from Wy moved out of the state and then entered the non-resident pool. Definitely a very small impact but impact nonetheless. As the resident upper pools thin down there is even a lesser chance of this happening.

Your comments about age hits home. I am 47 and looking at the possibility of waiting up to 18 more years. Pretty scary proposition about IF I will be alive let alone in shape to undertake a hunt like this. I remain optimistic.

 

[littlebighorn]

HT
Thanks for your yearly update. It is certainly interesting reading and at least it gives everyone somewhat of an idea of how long they have to wait. I drew in 04 in Wyoming so I am basically done, unless lightening were to strike, but I have been putting my son in for 10 years. If he sticks with it he will eventually draw and while I will likely be too old to go with him, all that time and money would still be worth it to me.

 

[ElmerFudd]

I'm thinking the biggest uncertainty is rule changes, point & draw system, and nonresident tag allocation...Drop it to 10% like most states....Anyway, guess you have to plan for what you know. Just hoping to tag out ASAP...I feel points systems are unfair, but got to take advantage of whatever system is in place as it is what it is...

 

[MNHunter]

>I'm thinking the biggest uncertainty is
>rule changes, point & draw
>system, and nonresident tag allocation...Drop
>it to 10% like most
>states....Anyway, guess you have to
>plan for what you know.
>Just hoping to tag out
>ASAP...I feel points systems are
>unfair, but got to take
>advantage of whatever system is
>in place as it is
>what it is...

DING! DING! DING!...we have a winner! Does anyone think that WY will keep this system intact forever? I truly believe that sooner or later, WY Will pull the rug from under everybody and declare every PP to now be a Bonus Point. How would that go over with the top tier point holders???

"Whatever you are, be a good one."
- Abraham Lincoln

 

[ElmerFudd]

No points system has made it more than 20 years yet (CO & AZ are close)....And most states don't include stuff that does not rotate over in a reasonable time period like sheep in true preference for most of the tags. When enough complaints come in from have nots, they will change. The haves will be a small enough minority to be out...

Actually -1 Wyoming sheep applicants like me would have drawn out by now if they didn't change to 25% random draw. They have changed once.

Other Examples:

MT had the 1st preference for moose, goat & sheep. They got rid of it for a while, then started a bonus point system.

AZ has a bonus point system, was 10% preference. Combine that with 10% nonresident cap & a change top 20% preference and nonresidents are true preference in some high demand hunts, an unintentional consequence. How do the guys a point or two off the top feel about their annual contribution over the years now?

NM had a preference system & canned it.

NV had straight bonus, then went to points squared.

Other states have changed nonresident allocation, points system or not.

I'm totally prepared to figure on a loss of investment due to rule changes, figure it's just a risk you take. Think I'll get my WY sheep tag first, but if not, oh well....Odds are pretty good for the -1 guys now

 

[Cozmo8]

Well said. Add in the threat of domestics spreading disease or other massive die offs and all bets are off on what will happen.

Congrats on being Max-1. I think you will make it to paradise before they change. $2,000 submitted by 3,000 people for a few months is pretty good interest.

 

[Zeke]

Cozmo8;
You're spot on with what you said. Also, for points figure about 7000 apps x 100 dollars, nonrefundable, and you have one heck of an income. Do the math; 100x7000=$700,000.00 just for sheep! Add in deer, elk, pronghorn, moose apps x $$$$$$$ and that adds up to a bunch of $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I hope they DO spend it all in one place! WILDLIFE
Oh well, I'll continue to donate! Wyoming has been good to us over the years! I should have a sheep tag in Wyoming by my 69th birthday. Good thing Colorado was kind to me in 1990!
I'd better get back on the old treadmill! LOL
Zeke

 

[gznokes]

Nice model. Thanks for sharing.

I'm assuming this is for residents? How much much worse is it for the non residents

Any chance you want to do the same analysis for UT resident desert bighorn sheep??!!

 

[ElmerFudd]

Those are for nonresidents. WY is about the only state with better nonresident than resident draw odds for moose and sheep, partly because of the high tag and application cost, partly because of their stupid guides in the wilderness law, and partly due to the relatively high 25% nonresident set aside quota. For sheep, residents are not too far behind, maybe a few years for each point pool.

 

[HornedToad]

This model is for WY Non-resident Bighorn Sheep.

It would be simple enough to prepare a similar model for Residents. There are many more Residents than Non-Residents in the higher point classes. This is because, in part, the up-front cost of application was much, much lower for Residents than Non-Residents back in the years from 1995 to 1999 before the $7 "preference point only" option was introduced in 2000. Prior to 2000, applicants had to put up the entire cost of the tag with their applications, which for Non-Residents amounted to over $2K, a considerable barrier to entry.

In so far as questions of "fairness" are concerned, , the fairest system is the one that retains the arrangement that applicants have relied upon for fifteen years now. It is difficult to understand how it would be somehow "fairer" to change the deal now so that those who had paid in their preference point fees for years, and had provided big up-front applications fee loans to WY before that, would be put on an equal probability footing with those who had never made that contribution to the system. In any event, I doubt that the sheep much care. They actually may prefer the current system that will lead to an increasingly older, and presumably less effective, group of sheep hunters in the future.

HT

 

[gznokes]

Thanks HornedToad, Thats a funny thought to think of the system from the sheeps perspective. You are right--they probably like the current system that guarantees older hunters.

 

[ElmerFudd]

Anyway, it's all about entitlement to distribitution of very limited public resources.

Since it's all about the sheep, got to thinking, maybe they should make you put a check of whatever amount you want in your application. Tags go to the highest in order, but it's all nonrefundable...That way, tags for sure would go to the most serious applicant, and everyone would have to be really serious to apply. Just make sure the money goes to sheep projects, not the general fund. Totally fair!

At least WY has sheep tag numbers to make it possible for a reasonablly young person to draw in a lifetime, if he/she lives to average life expectancy or more. Now for desert sheep....

 

[Zeke]

ElmerFudd;
I don't mean to be too contrary, BUT here goes. If it's all about the "HIGH BIDDER" then go to a wildlife banquet or convention and buy a sheep tag (same thing as money in an envelope). There are always tags to buy, the money goes to a good cause and you get a sheep tag!
The application process is designed to level the financial playing field (sort of) and entitlement comes from building bonus points!
Through the application process, we can have a sheep tag for about 2K, add outfitter fees (for most units) and we approach 8-10K for a CHEAP hunt. Otherwisw we would be paying 30K+ for a Rocky hunt!
I'm one of the "older" hunters and I very much look forward to having a Wyoming tag when I'm in my mid 60's! I'll be ready! (physically and finacially, I hope)
Zeke

 

[ElmerFudd]

Sorry. It was just my type of sarcastic humor. But, if they had all the tags go to highest bidder, not just one or two, price per tag would drop...Oh, better stop now

 

[Zeke]

E.F.
I really do appreciate ALL opinions. Your opinion is just as valid as mine! I also appreciate your humor too.
After all the years of applications I hope they don't change the points game mid-stream! If they do I'll just have to hunt Dall Sheep (cheapest). Bighorn would be too expensive for this old boy!
It's been a GREAT thread!!!!!!!!!!
Zeke

 

[gznokes]

Cozmo you and HT are like twins seperated at birth with your interest in these drawing statistics. It really is awesome.

 

[2lumpy]

HT/Coz

I'm way to stupid to understand the most basic of your calculations but I've learned to trust brilliant folks over the years.

I'm 62 years old, I have 9 non-resident points for Moose in Wyoming, far from max points or anything close to it, which means I won't live long enough to draw a top shelf moose unit in Wyoming. My question is, based on your calculations, could I draw a second shelf moose unit or I'm still too far from the second shelf to continue applying. I know there are some units I could draw or so it appears to me but the units I could draw with 9 points do not look to be even considered as second shelf units. Am I wrong?

I'm not interest in putting out the money for non-resident moose permit for a two year old bull that is truly little more than a good slice of venison. Just settling for a low quality unit so I can go moose hunting is not what I'm interested in. I have 15 points for Moose in Utah and can mostly likely draw a moose tag here now if all I wanted was a young bull.

I believe the comments made here regarding the ever present possibility that the rules will change so I'm one that should fish or cut bait pretty soon in Wyoming. I need to go for a second shelf unit or give it up now, or so it seems.

I understand you don't have a crystal ball but I would value your opinions.

Thanks
DC

 

[Cozmo8]

My first thought is that it is doable. I am kind of in the same place. I have 10 or 11 points and do not know what to do. Very few max point holders dropped out this year. My theory is that the top three pools are kind of waiting for those top 2 or 3 units. Quite a few people in the lower point pools have disappeared but there is still a ton of competition.


Let me research a little. I am headed to Mt for a deer hunt on Thursday but will get back to you after Thanksgiving.

 

[2lumpy]

Thanks Coz, look forward to hearing from you. Hope a good one steps into your field of vision.

DC

 

[wymoosehunter]

Great thread and I hope more discussion occurs regarding preference points in all the states. As a middle income sheep fanatic, I have to prioritize where my limited application dollars will be spent, especially in my early adult years in the early 1990's. I skipped applying for WY sheep as an out-of-stater since the sheep are generally smaller than other states. As my income rose, I began applying in WY and then ended up becoming a resident here. As a Max minus 5 guy, I really don't believe that I will draw until sometime in 2035 or even later. I think that most people are a little optimistic on when they will draw, especially down in the ranks.
What really concerns me regarding the preference point system is that my son, who is now 10, will realistically not have a chance of drawing a tag until he is in his 60's (presuming he remains here), and that is based on continuing to have 180 resident tags available for rams in WY. We all know that die offs will occur and I believe that the 180 res tags is not sustainable. Look at all the immature 4-7 year old rams that are killed every year and the inevitable loss of habitat (especially wintering grounds).
I play the game as the rules stand, here in WY and other states, but do not see the sustainability of preference point systems as I am sure that some math genius that can really do a valid statistical analysis will do one for his kid and prove that the kid will never draw based on provable statistical modeling and sue one of the states (Colorado or Arizona comes to mind) and will win. Once one falls, they all will and we will all end up with a Montana or Nevada style of system.
My vote is for pure random draw and make it once in a life time.
Just my two cents. Keep these discussions up, debate and discourse are good.
WyMo

 

[Triple_BB]

Litigation likely won't change anything. You may've missed out on the law congress passed a few years ago giving states the right to allocate and set licese quotas etc., as they see fit. This followed the litigation the jerkoffs at USO pursued and prevailed on against the State of Arizona. I'd be surprised if the State of Wyoming modifies the non resident pref point system anytime soon. It ain't a priority given all the other issues facing the state. Its hard enough to get our legislature to pass or address anything let alone something that ain't broke. I have max sheep points and will be able to draw my preferred area next year. Just need to make the decision to pull the trigger in a few months. I'm not in a hurry given this will be a once in a life time deal...

 

[ElmerFudd]

I totally agree changes are not happening real soon, and it will not be because of nonresident opinion. I think I'll get my tag first. The resident stack up will eventually get so long that complaints will come from residents locked out too long. Possible draw changes and reduction to more like the standard in most states 10% nonresident set aside quota from the current 25% will come from within. I'm guessing at least 5, maybe 10 years...

Strangely, the nonresident sheep and moose draw odds are better, and stack up shorter than for residents. Plus, with the application and tag costs, guides in wilderness rule, and such, fewer new young nonresidents are getting in. WY is about the only state with better nonresident than resident draw odds for sheep.

 

[HornedToad]

EF - There is nothing strange about the fact that Non-Resident draw odds for sheep are better than Resident. The cost of applying for a sheep permit has always been much, much greater for Non-Residents than for Residents. If Wyoming wanted to "equalize" draw odds for Residents, the answer would be simple... increase the cost of applying for Residents to that charged to Non-Residents. Many Residents would quit the draw, just as many Non-Residents quit the draw when the cost of a PP was increased from $7 to $100.

Now, I am not complaining about the extra cost of applying as a Non-Resident. But one shouldn't be confused as to why Resident draw odds are worse. The disparity is greatest in the high-PP classes. This is because back in the late 1990's, when the PP system was started, the upfront money required for a Non-Resident application was greater than $2000, while the upfront money for a Resident application was less than $200.

I know of several WY Resident hunters who would like to see a substantial increase in the application cost for Residents, as a way of reducing the applicant pool numbers, thus increasing the draw odds for those serious sheep-hunters who remain. This essentially is a political question for the WY Legislature.

 

[ElmerFudd]

HT..True. But if they do change the resident draw point system, nonresident will follow. If they change the resident/nonresident from 75:25 to 90:10 like most states, it will help resident odds and shorten wait time, but will increase nonresident waits a lot, to more than knowing you should get a tag someday. I could see either happening.


But you do have to plan for what you know, and your calculations are a good estimate of wait time based on the way it is now. Just buyer be ware if you are looking far into the future. That's really all I'm saying

 

[cbeard]

Good info. Thanks.

The only quick comment I have is that the table doesn't appear to take into account the HUGE differnce in pool numbers at 10 points and below vs. 10 points and above because of the cheap PP option implemented (now gone) in the year 2000.

Seems like there should be a BIG gap in years to draw from those with 11 PP's vs. those with 10 or less.

 

[HillbillyNnevada]

The federal law passed a few years back in response to the USO lawsuit fiasco isn't unfettered. The law hasn't put this issue to bed altogether. People don't realize that although this law says the states can allocate licenses as they see fit, the state laws still have to pass constitutional scrutiny based upon the Privileges and Immunities Clause. The federal law only cleared up the state's problems with the Dormant Commerce Clause. I predict that we will see a case someday where a state is too stingy against nonresidents and that state's law gets struck down as unconstitutional. How stingy before it is declared unconstituntional, I don't know.

 

[cbeard]

Hillbilly one would certainly think so but it is going to be a tough nut to crack as long as states are primarily responsible for the management of fish and game within their borders.

I can maybe envision an argument that affects federal lands only but even that would be tough since states have at least shared jurisdiction over federal lands(with a very few exceptions).

Also as the NR fees continue to skyrocket and the $$$ paid as a % of state F&G budgets escalates the possibility of a successful claim increases.

Sure doesn't seem fair that if NRs pay a significant % of the freight that they are limited to a very limited % of the opportunity.

 

[buglinbilly]

That's some pretty interesting stuff. I lucked out and have drawn 5 Wyoming moose permits through the years, and both sheep tags in Utah. But I don't play the point game on sheep any more at my age.

I want to say thanks for doing all this work and I want you guys to appreciate what this old horned toad has done. Here'a photo of him so you guys know whose doing all this work for you. I predicit he won't be around to do this too many more years as he looks pretty old to me.

Again thanks for the information.

Have a good one. BB

 

[CAelknuts]

This is all great information, thanks for creating those models and sharing it for the rest of us. I guess I'm glad for a few things in regard to Wyoming sheep. First, my son and I each have 11 points, so I should draw when I'm around 60 or so, should still be able to hunt sheep then. Best of all, my son with 11 points is only 22 years old, so he'll draw when he's still in real good shape. No way we're dropping out, unless I drop, literally.

 

[camuleycrazy]

Thanks Hornedtoad. I too am in the Max-1 pool. I am having a hard time deciding whether to put in and draw in a guide only area prabably sooner or wait for a good unguided area.