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You can add the probabilities of unrelated events, such as drawing a tag or flipping a coin. The OP's original question was odds of not drawing any tag. If he only put in for a single tag 5% would be the answer, however, you have to consider the odds of drawing a second or third tag. For...

5% is not the final answer. That is the percent chance on a single hunt. It does not account for the chance of drawing the other tags, which would increase the percentage. The method I use when I dream of seeing green is calculating the chance of not drawing any tag. Start off by...

Some nice looking birds. Got the bike loaded up and heading out tomorrow.

Just curious how spring turkey is going. Hoping to do a bikepacking turkey hunt next weekend in the Jemez.

All RED for me.

>I have a confession to make. >I'm one of "those" people >that don't have internet.... Oh the irony hurts so bad.

I'm hopeful, always so dang hopeful. Last year was my first not drawing any hunt. When are results generally available? Might need a plan B this year.

Sea of RED. I've been putting in for VV bear for over 10 years as a resident and haven't drawn. I guess God doesn't want me to have a bear rug for the cabin. Also I've never drawn Valles Caldera turkey.

All RED for me. No problem though already have a week at Bandon Dunes scheduled.

I need a SureCan. Thank you for the giveaway.

Congrats. That's a nice looking bear.

Is that a deer behind him in the second pick?

Did you see any elk?

Are you going to be able to do any scouting? Towing that size trailer my limit some of your trail head options.

16B is almost entirely wilderness. Meaning your access is by hoof or foot. No atvs, no mountain bikes, nothing. Luckily there is some really good hunting within a couple miles of the boundaries. Even with that you might want to have some horses or mules on stand by if you score. I think...

16A second rifle elk and 16 first rifle deer. Much better than my 0 for 8 last year.

With my incredibly poor luck drawing any tags I stayed with my usual second rifle in semi-decent units.

0 for 2 so far. Got 4 more apps in, will get the rest done this week. Went 0 for 8 last year...gotta work on that karma thing.

I see red in my future....again. One of these years.

Order some from Sportsman'S Warehouse online and have it shipped to store. They charge $25 hazmat fee, but at least you will know you have it.

Thanks everyone that's what I was looking for.

As I mentioned in the draw thread, my wife drew second rifle MB for 16A. This will be her first big game hunt, so I want it to be a great experience for her. Can some of you recommend some guides? I would like someone who is flexible...we will use our own camp and food. Basically day guides...

My wife drew 16A second rifle MB. I drew 53 rifle deer and 17 late muzzy cow.

Hope they're not going to redraw. I liked our hunts.

>scottr you can rule in or >rule out Valle Vidal by >checking your one in a >lifetime status at the bottom >of the profile page Thanks Tega unfortunately it's not valle vidal.

First year for my wife putting in for elk and she got either VV MB, 16D 1st rifle or 16A second rifle. I got elk and deer.

Not sure if this means anything but I can't even view private land deer hunts. Which was able to add to my cart yesterday.

Congrats to the young huntress.

Looking good...now if I can draw a tag. Thanks for sharing.

I donate every year. Never drew a tag but I'm pretty unlucky.

Nothing here except red and more red.

That is great...memories for a lifetime for both of you.

Congrats. Nice bull.

>Gotta say for all that cost, >think about a good ol' >amateur radio license. > >No morse code anymore, one simple >test of 30 questions. Good >for 10 years. You can >get a cheap handheld for >1/3 of what you pay >to rent the phone. NM >has one of the best >linked repeater systems...

I rented own before for a gila wilderness hunt. Never needed for an emergency, but for peace of mind it was well worth it. Also it is nice to check in with family for $1/minute.

Got a first rifle tag in a couple of weeks. Curious about how things are going up there. It's been about ten years since I last hunted it. Scott

Great write up Stinky. Glad to see you back on MM. Appreciate your passion and knowledge of hunting, especially elk.

Awesome buck. Congrats

Real nice bull. Congrats.

Beautiful bull. Love them BIG 5x5s. Congrats.