If you look at the math when I entered the game in 1999 I knew I was sure to draw in 25-30 years. For 20 years they kept the game the same. No guarantee it would not change but 20 years of giving them well over $5,000 in point fees (sheep & moose).............
Many say NR were never guaranteed a tag. True G&F did not but the math did. 3% of people drop out a year. In 30 years for every 100 apps that were ahead of you only 41 remain just from drop outs. When you combine this with the number of tags - drawing a sheep or moose tag was a sure thing. I am not talking about a bad unit. I am talking about unit 5 where a NR can hunt sheep outside wilderness.
Going into the 2021 draw there were 127 guys ahead of me. Roughly 5 drop out every year and about 40 with more points then me draw. I did not check new stats but they will be almost exactly: 127 - 5 (drop) - 40 (draw) = 82 remaining. That means in 3 years I am at max points. There might be a very very small number of guys with more points but half sit out the draw every year and there are a lot of units better then unit 5 so myself and all other guys with the same points as me will draw in 2-3 years.
I knew I was sure to draw if things remained the same. They did until I spent a ton of money then they changed the game.
It is obvious that asap WY will change the draw system. Yes I have my points NOW.
WY has mastered taking money from NR no doubt about it. The 2 years I know of when they sent NR the questionnaire designed to figure out how to get the most money from NR's, for the longest time, giving out the least number of tags.
WY knows NR will see random odds so low they will give up applying and significantly fewer new NR will enter the draw. They will change the draw to 50/50 or, more likely 75/25. Good chance it might go to pure bonus points. At that point my chances of drawing are well below 1% per year - after 25 years of what WAS a sure tag and dropping over $2,000 (for a sheep tag alone).
That is called bait and switch.
I went for sure to draw my sheep tag to what will likely become no chance. That is a fact. I have enough points now I will probably barely get in and draw. Anyone with 21 points or less basically will never get a WY sheep tag, not even in 20 more years.
Maybe WY will not change the draw to more/all bonus points tags but it is a very good assumption given their history.
Again this is clearly bait and switch, not illegal but not ethical IMO. And no, I do not expect WY G&F to be ethical that ship has sailed. They are a business and NR are the cash cow and there is NOTHING we can do about it and that is frustrating.