Have 9 Utah Deer points, and want to hunt Henry's Archery. I know it will be some time before I draw it. But the question is according to all statistics and all that blah blah. How long before I can draw a Henry's Archery tag if all statistics stay as they are? I am not good at this stuff. Please help a fellow math idiot out.
All you math guys!
- Thread starter koda
- Start date
R
Ridge
Guest
To be guaranteed a bonus permit and assuming the same number of applicants and bonus permits as in 2010, you may wait up to 13 years to draw. The good news is that once all of the point holders in front of your 9 points group (about 7 years from now)draw their tags, your chances improve greatly, the odds start at 1 in 6 to draw and get better every year after that (years 8-13).
Got to put in to draw, good luck. You may get one of the regular tags before the 13 years.
Got to put in to draw, good luck. You may get one of the regular tags before the 13 years.
Blanding_Boy
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 1,037
LAST EDITED ON Feb-01-11 AT 09:32AM (MST)[p]Really, 13 years???? I need to see that math formula, maybe I'm making this too difficult and there really is a chance in he!!.
If you look at the data that is available now and assume things will remain constant over time (but they won't). There are 1160 folks in your group (with 9 points) all the way up to 14 folks to have 15 points. That's 1160 people with 9 or more points.
There are 11 bonus tags give each year so isn't that just 11/1160? I get 105 years. Now granted some guys are going to die before than and some are going to drop out, get lucky and draw one of the other 11 tags available so, lets just cut that in half (since we know things will change over time--the unknown variable) so to be assured (at least in theory) a tag, you might only be really looking at 52 years.
Todd Black
BTO
If you look at the data that is available now and assume things will remain constant over time (but they won't). There are 1160 folks in your group (with 9 points) all the way up to 14 folks to have 15 points. That's 1160 people with 9 or more points.
There are 11 bonus tags give each year so isn't that just 11/1160? I get 105 years. Now granted some guys are going to die before than and some are going to drop out, get lucky and draw one of the other 11 tags available so, lets just cut that in half (since we know things will change over time--the unknown variable) so to be assured (at least in theory) a tag, you might only be really looking at 52 years.
Todd Black
BTO
R
Ridge
Guest
blanding_boy - I think you used the bonus points for all weapons grouped together, I like to break it down by weapon. And nice to see you reply to something other than a CWMU post...
Koda,
Here you go, so you can use it on other units.
Simple Formula:
Years to draw = (Total applicants in my group plus the sum of all applicants with more points) divided by number of bonus permits per year.
Use this document in determining applicants and bonus tags:
http://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/10_bg_bonus_point_draw_results.pdf
Henry's Archery Example:
52 applicants / 4 bonus permits = 13 years
(24 applicants in 9 points group + 28 applicants in all groups with more than 9 bonus points that didn't draw)
This assumes for 13 years the number of applicants and bonus permits stay the same year to year.
Henry's Any Weapon:
857 applicants with 9 pts or more / 11 bonus permits = 77.9 years.
I'm not putting in for Henrys, for me to hunt it with 10 points any weapon I would be 99 years old...
Koda,
Here you go, so you can use it on other units.
Simple Formula:
Years to draw = (Total applicants in my group plus the sum of all applicants with more points) divided by number of bonus permits per year.
Use this document in determining applicants and bonus tags:
http://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/10_bg_bonus_point_draw_results.pdf
Henry's Archery Example:
52 applicants / 4 bonus permits = 13 years
(24 applicants in 9 points group + 28 applicants in all groups with more than 9 bonus points that didn't draw)
This assumes for 13 years the number of applicants and bonus permits stay the same year to year.
Henry's Any Weapon:
857 applicants with 9 pts or more / 11 bonus permits = 77.9 years.
I'm not putting in for Henrys, for me to hunt it with 10 points any weapon I would be 99 years old...
swbuckmaster
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 5,004
LAST EDITED ON Feb-01-11 AT 01:29PM (MST)[p]There all wrong
just look at our own draw odds page on monster muleys. You cant just go to the 9 year category and call it good. you didn't get 9 points until the draw was over so last year you were in the 8 point category. so there are 47 people with the same amount of points as you! This is where a lot of people go wrong when looking at their odds and in this case looking at your odds when they say 13 years.
There are 1,16,13,13,24,47 people that have as many points or more then he does. this equals 114
114/4 = 28.5 years
you now have to consider that not one guy that has been archery only has drawn a tag in the last three years. They have all been muzzy and rifle applicants that didn't want to wait any more. so the wait is way longer then 28 years is you are the last in you point pool to draw.
The harder you work the luckier you get!!
just look at our own draw odds page on monster muleys. You cant just go to the 9 year category and call it good. you didn't get 9 points until the draw was over so last year you were in the 8 point category. so there are 47 people with the same amount of points as you! This is where a lot of people go wrong when looking at their odds and in this case looking at your odds when they say 13 years.
There are 1,16,13,13,24,47 people that have as many points or more then he does. this equals 114
114/4 = 28.5 years
you now have to consider that not one guy that has been archery only has drawn a tag in the last three years. They have all been muzzy and rifle applicants that didn't want to wait any more. so the wait is way longer then 28 years is you are the last in you point pool to draw.
The harder you work the luckier you get!!
R
Ridge
Guest
LAST EDITED ON Feb-01-11 AT 01:29PM (MST)[p]SWBuckmaster is right, you have to consider the number of bonus points in 2010, not current bonus points. I didn't take that into the account.
Elkhunter96
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 1,097
If you saved four thousand dollars a year for the Henry hunt, you could just buy one in 15-20 years in an auction 
It may be faster...
It may be faster...
walleye1121
Active Member
- Messages
- 331
Swbuckmaster is correct.
You are a lock in the year 2039.
You are a lock in the year 2039.
Daxter
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 1,425
With my 10 points I could draw a muzz tag in 40+ years! I will be in my 70's if I wait to hunt the Henry Mtns. With all the global warming Al Gore predicts it will probably be a coues deer hunt by then. I am burning my points and hunting somewhere else in the near future.
Dax
There is no such thing as a sure thing in trophy mule deer hunting.
Dax
There is no such thing as a sure thing in trophy mule deer hunting.
Dax, with your luck you won't have to burn any points. Just keep drawing freebies-- BC ML last year and Diamond Mtn this year, then hit Pauns the year after.....
IF (and this is a big IF) the Board would combine the deer points then you will see those LTD numbers drop. Maybe not much, but some. If they make people choose to either apply for a high-end hunt or draw the lesser units I think you'd see people choosing to hunt more often than wait to hunt once every 20+ years.......
IF (and this is a big IF) the Board would combine the deer points then you will see those LTD numbers drop. Maybe not much, but some. If they make people choose to either apply for a high-end hunt or draw the lesser units I think you'd see people choosing to hunt more often than wait to hunt once every 20+ years.......
AWHOLELOTTABULL
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 4,357
I think that you will find a lot of guys with wisdom on this site. And yes Dax, I think you're a pretty wise dude for a young buck. If you are set on drawing an archery tag on the Henries and don't mind only hunting 1 mule deer hunt in your lifetime in Utah then wait it out. Nobody will fault you there. On the other hand, if you will "settle" (tongue in cheek) for something like the Book Cliffs then put a tag in your pocket this fall and plan on one hell of a hunt. I know guys on here that will vouch for that one. PM silentstalker, swbuckmaster, etc. I know they've hunted places other than the Henry's and had some absolute awesome experiences and now they are almost back in the point pool to try again. If it were me, I would forget the Henries unless you have max points. And even then, it's still a OIL tag.
It's always an adventure!!!
If you are set on drawing an archery tag on the Henries and don't mind only hunting 1 mule deer hunt in your lifetime in Utah then wait it out. Nobody will fault you there. On the other hand, if you will "settle" (tongue in cheek) for something like the Book Cliffs then put a tag in your pocket this fall and plan on one hell of a hunt. I know guys on here that will vouch for that one. PM silentstalker, swbuckmaster, etc. I know they've hunted places other than the Henry's and had some absolute awesome experiences and now they are almost back in the point pool to try again. If it were me, I would forget the Henries unless you have max points. And even then, it's still a OIL tag.It's always an adventure!!!
stillhunterman
Active Member
- Messages
- 608
Damn, it just breaks my heart that big game hunting has come down to this... I'm not foolish enough to think that we could ever get back to the way things were a few decades ago, but dang, I sure do miss those days!
>Damn, it just breaks my heart
>that big game hunting has
>come down to this...
>I'm not foolish enough to
>think that we could ever
>get back to the way
>things were a few decades
>ago, but dang, I sure
>do miss those days!
its not that bad . he's talking about drawing a henrys tag . it's not like he can't hunt somewhere else every year till he draws. i know it seems like a long time but a lot of guys kill bigger bucks on the open units than the guys on the henrys do.
>that big game hunting has
>come down to this...
>I'm not foolish enough to
>think that we could ever
>get back to the way
>things were a few decades
>ago, but dang, I sure
>do miss those days!
its not that bad . he's talking about drawing a henrys tag . it's not like he can't hunt somewhere else every year till he draws. i know it seems like a long time but a lot of guys kill bigger bucks on the open units than the guys on the henrys do.
Bearpaw Outfitters
Experience world class hunting for mule deer, elk, cougar, bear, turkey, moose, sheep and more.
Wild West Outfitters
Hunt the big bulls, bucks, bear and cats in southern Utah. Your hunt of a lifetime awaits.
J & J Outfitters
Offering quality fair-chase hunts for trophy mule deer, elk, shiras moose and mountain lions.
Shane Scott Outfitting
Quality trophy hunting in Utah. Offering FREE Utah drawing consultation. Great local guides.
Utah Big Game Outfitters
Specializing in bighorn sheep, mule deer, elk, mountain goat, lions, bears & antelope.
Apex Outfitters
We offer experienced guides who hunt Elk, Mule Deer, Antelope, Sheep, Bison, Goats, Cougar, and Bear.
Urge 2 Hunt
We offer high quality hunts on large private ranches around the state, with landowner vouchers.
Allout Guiding & Outfitting
Offering high quality mule deer, elk, bear, cougar and bison hunts in the Book Cliffs and Henry Mtns.
Lickity Split Outfitters
General season and LE fully guided hunts for mule deer, elk, moose, antelope, lion, turkey, bear and coyotes.