LAST EDITED ON Feb-01-11 AT 09:32AM (MST)[p]Really, 13 years???? I need to see that math formula, maybe I'm making this too difficult and there really is a chance in he!!.
If you look at the data that is available now and assume things will remain constant over time (but they won't). There are 1160 folks in your group (with 9 points) all the way up to 14 folks to have 15 points. That's 1160 people with 9 or more points.
There are 11 bonus tags give each year so isn't that just 11/1160? I get 105 years. Now granted some guys are going to die before than and some are going to drop out, get lucky and draw one of the other 11 tags available so, lets just cut that in half (since we know things will change over time--the unknown variable) so to be assured (at least in theory) a tag, you might only be really looking at 52 years.
Todd Black
BTO