>I have 19 points, and I
>don't think they do much
>for my odds. Think
>about it...who will get the
>low number: the several
>thousnad applicants who have 10
>or less points, or the
>very few of us that
>have a ton of points.
>
>
>The NDOW bonus points breakdown shows
>this. Damn few of
>us with 15+ points have
>drawn elk tags in the
>last 3 years.
I was lucky to draw my elk tag when I had 7 NR points going into the draw but that was back in 2007. I think points definitely help you but I am in DWalton's camp on this. The longer you go without drawing the worse your odds get in comparison to the lower point pools. Everyone below is moving up to the next point level and collectively gaining ground on you because of the way the bonus points are squared in NV. Also, you have the new applicants that are entering the draw for the first time. There simply aren't enough NR tags turning over to stem the tide.
Take for example the 161E elk hunt draw stats from last year and for the sake of argument let's say these are the draw stats for this year and this is the hunt DWalton applied for. While DWalton had 19 points or 362 chances to draw a low random number this year (19 * 19 + 1), there were were 100 applicants with 9 points with 8,200 chances for a low random number (100*(9*9 + 1))! Next year DWalton will have 401 chances after gaining his 20th bonus point but the 100 applicants will now have 10 points and a combined 10,100 chances for a low random number. So, while DWalton will have 39 more chances next year (401-362), the 100 applicants gain 1,900 chances (10,100-8,200) to draw a low random number. I haven't ran all the numbers for all the various bonus point levels but the same logic applies. Then on top of those other point levels gaining ground on you add in the 200 or so putting in for the first time every year which is approximately 1/2 of what DWalton will have in total chances next year. To me, the pressure mounts on the high point holder in NV every year that goes by without drawing a tag as all things being equal, your odds of drawing overall decrease.
I have the same opinion as to those of us NR in the CO moose, sheep, and goat draws (though not to the same magnitude as NV because bonus points aren't squared). Every year that you don't draw, the next year you have a new class of applicants that have gained the necessary three points to qualify for the draw. The new class of applicants out-strip the turn over of NR tags and while you gain a weighted point, so does everyone else and you have that many more new applicants to compete against.
Points can be both a blessing and a curse! With that being said, I would certainly rather be in DWalton's position with all those points instead of being on the opposite end of the spectrum!
Horniac
